We are getting closer to the official start of the Jordan Love era. With the anticipation for his first season as a starter growing by the day, the question of what his season will look like is being asked by both Packers fans and sports bettors. From a sports betting perspective, the question is being asked while staring at Jordan Love futures and prop bets for the season, wondering what side of the over/under to lay money on.
In an effort to help complete that process for sports bettors before the season, we’ll take a look at the bets and how history and different factors can help create a final decision.
Analyzing Two Jordan Love Prop Bets
Jordan Love Total Passing Yards O/U 3350.5
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Of all the quarterbacks set for their first full season as a starting quarterback, Jordan Love has the second-highest yards total behind Brock Purdy on DraftKings. This list includes rookies and QBs like Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder, who didn’t start until late in the season last year. That said, it’s clear the WI betting apps are showing some respect to the new signal caller in Green Bay, but the question remains of whether or not he can hit the over, which is priced at (+125) on DraftKings.
Last season, 14 quarterbacks cleared 3,350.5 yards, including former Packers starter Aaron Rodgers. Of those 14 quarterbacks to exceed his total for this season, none were first-year starters. This isn’t to say that could change this year, but a lot would have to go right for it to happen.
In 2022, the Packers ranked 18th in pass play percentage and 17th in yards per pass. The fact that the team had these numbers with a future Hall of Famer at the helm does not bode well for Love. Of course, the Packers’ offensive game plan will change a bit with a new quarterback under center, but overall, it is hard to imagine coach Matt LaFleur will increase the pass play percentage by a drastic amount with a first-year starter.
Not only is the game plan a significant determining factor in hitting this number, but the players around Love will also greatly affect it. Love will have the 8th-best offensive line unit in the league, according to PFF, so the time to get through his progressions should be there. While that is a positive, the negative to his offense is that Love only has one pass catcher who finished in the top 25 in yards after the catch last season, and it was Aaron Jones.
It looks like the Packers are in a GREAT spot with Jordan Love..
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) August 28, 2023
Total Passing Touchdowns O/U 21.5
Interestingly enough, 14 quarterbacks also finished with 22 or more touchdowns last season, so this would be another statistical category that Love would need to be in the middle of the pack for to exceed his total. While none of the QBs to go over this number last year were first-year starters, I think we do see a handful on the list at the end of this year.
Love has multiple factors that should help him in this category, the first being his receiving corps. While PFF has them ranked 27th in the league, that is mainly due to age and not talent. A second-year leap from Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs could make the Green Bay offense dangerous. I mean, Watson didn’t get consistently targeted until week seven last season, and he still pulled in seven touchdowns. Alongside those two, Love also has potential breakout rookie weapons in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. Jordan Love fantasy football profile looks okay, actually.
One of the last factors we haven’t touched on is Love’s opponents this season. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Packers rank 14th in strength of schedule, which in itself is pretty good for a first-year starter to face. The big key, though, is that according to PFF’s secondary rankings for this season, Love will only face one secondary unit ranked higher than 19th in the first eight weeks.
In a perfect world for Packers fans, Love would blow past both these numbers and establish himself as a legit starter, but most things in the NFL don’t turn out perfect. Starting with his yards prop, I think it will be difficult for him to go over this number, and quite frankly, when looking for the best price on the bet, I would be willing to take his under of 3300.5 yards on FanDuel, which the under is priced at (-112), instead of under 3350.5 on DraftKings, priced at (-145).
We will wrap up this article on a positive, though, as I do think Love can hit the over of his touchdown prop. Between a young receiving corps that could surprise many people and a weaker schedule to start the season, I think Love celebrates in the end zone at least 22 times this year.
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